Integrated Car Rental & Fleet Forecast Model

Business challenge

A rental and leasing business needed to know how many vehicles it could add while staying inside its lender's covenants, and which channels truly make money.

Outcome

Leadership can test fleet growth, pricing and utilisation in seconds and see the effect on EBITDA, cash, covenants and return on capital.

Overview

A five-year, three-statement model for a leased rental fleet, from vehicles and utilisation to cash, covenants and ROCE. Inside: integrated P&L, balance sheet and cash flow; IFRS 16 lease liability and right-of-use assets; channel P&L and contract profitability; EBITDA bridge and ratio analysis (ROCE, ROE, leverage); fixed-charge cover and covenant tests; EBITDA sensitivity grid. How to use this model: on the Dashboard sheet, use the drop-down in cell D5 to pick the scenario: Base, Upside or Downside.

Approach

Vehicle numbers, utilisation, pricing and lease costs drive channel revenue and costs, an IFRS 16 lease schedule, the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow. A revolver funds shortfalls; covenants, unit economics, ratios and sensitivities sit on top.

Capabilities

Skills

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Screenshots